Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Joel HanleyAssists2
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Isac LundestromAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:05Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Coronato (11)3–2
- P37:36Mason McTavish Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (13), Pavel Mintyukov (6)2–2
- P212:44Nazem Kadri Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (17), Joel Hanley (2)2–1
- P28:34Alex Killorn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (3), Jackson LaCombe (9)1–1
- P119:04MacKenzie Weegar Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Blake Coleman (11), Joel Hanley (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:04MacKenzie Weegar Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Blake Coleman (11), Joel Hanley (1)CGY 1 – 0 ANA · CGY 55% → 72% +16CGY 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P28:34Alex Killorn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (3), Jackson LaCombe (9)CGY 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 27% → 46% +19ANA 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P212:44Nazem Kadri Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (17), Joel Hanley (2)CGY 2 – 1 ANA · CGY 54% → 74% +20CGY 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P37:36Mason McTavish Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (13), Pavel Mintyukov (6)CGY 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 19% → 47% +28ANA 19% → 47%+28 pts
- OT2:05Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Coronato (11)CGY 3 – 2 ANA · CGY 51% → 95% +44CGY 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 56%
- ML CGY -140 / ANA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CGY: Elo 51.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -128
- ANA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −6 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +10 Elo | CGY 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 27th of 325–12 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–18 | 27–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–23 | 12–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.