Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:28Frank Vatrano Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (16)1–4
- P316:26Jackson LaCombe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (10), Leo Carlsson (7)1–3
- P29:12Jake Guentzel Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (38), Brayden Point (22)1–2
- P117:03Frank Vatrano Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (8), Troy Terry (19)0–2
- P15:24Troy Terry Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (15), Frank Vatrano (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:24Troy Terry Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (15), Frank Vatrano (12)TB 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 41% → 56% +15ANA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P117:03Frank Vatrano Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (8), Troy Terry (19)TB 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 59% → 74% +16ANA 59% → 74%+16 pts
- P29:12Jake Guentzel Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (38), Brayden Point (22)TB 1 – 2 ANA · TB 20% → 37% +17TB 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P316:26Jackson LaCombe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (10), Leo Carlsson (7)TB 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 92% → >99% +7ANA 92% → >99%+7 pts
- P318:28Frank Vatrano Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (16)TB 1 – 4 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -165 / ANA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- TB: Elo 55.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- ANA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −9 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +37 Elo | TB 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 13th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–17 | 26–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 12–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–0 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.