Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Vasily PodkolzinGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Vasily PodkolzinPoints2
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:18Zach Hyman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (32), Evan Bouchard (25)4–3
- P217:30Corey Perry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3)3–3
- P215:49Adam Henrique Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ty Emberson (6), Vasily Podkolzin (11)2–3
- P210:03Ryan Donato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nolan Allan (7), Taylor Hall (14)1–3
- P20:22Vasily Podkolzin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (8), Leon Draisaitl (31)1–2
- P115:01Nick Foligno Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (20), Alec Martinez (4)0–2
- P14:45Teuvo Teravainen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (7), Nick Foligno (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:22Vasily Podkolzin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (8), Leon Draisaitl (31)EDM 1 – 2 CHI · EDM 39% → 56% +18EDM 39% → 56%+18 pts
- P210:03Ryan Donato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nolan Allan (7), Taylor Hall (14)EDM 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 50% → 69% +20CHI 50% → 69%+20 pts
- P215:49Adam Henrique Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ty Emberson (6), Vasily Podkolzin (11)EDM 2 – 3 CHI · EDM 25% → 46% +21EDM 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P217:30Corey Perry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3)EDM 3 – 3 CHI · EDM 45% → 68% +23EDM 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P37:18Zach Hyman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (32), Evan Bouchard (25)EDM 4 – 3 CHI · EDM 63% → 87% +24EDM 63% → 87%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 77%
- ML EDM -425 / CHI +320
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 71.6%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -340
- CHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 4.1 – 2.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +161 Elo | EDM 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 75.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.1% | Shot share | 45.4%31st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–25 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.