Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:54Connor Bedard Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (8), Seth Jones (11)1–3
- P210:17Frank Nazar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Dach (1), Teuvo Teravainen (19)1–2
- P116:48Ilya Mikheyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (26)1–1
- P16:14Juuso Parssinen Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:14Juuso Parssinen Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneCOL 1 – 0 CHI · COL 67% → 80% +13COL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P116:48Ilya Mikheyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (26)COL 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 20% → 35% +14CHI 20% → 35%+14 pts
- P210:17Frank Nazar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Dach (1), Teuvo Teravainen (19)COL 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 37% → 58% +20CHI 37% → 58%+20 pts
- P311:54Connor Bedard Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (8), Seth Jones (11)COL 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 79% → 97% +17CHI 79% → 97%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML COL -240 / CHI +200
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- COL: Elo 65.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -212
- CHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | COL: Trent Miner (no track record yet) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +112 Elo | COL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3213–7 | Road vs home | 8–1123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–25 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders | 22–19 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.