Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Nolan AllanAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists3
- Patrick KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:21Marco Kasper Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (12)3–5
- P317:06Teuvo Teravainen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P310:16Teuvo Teravainen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nolan Allan (6), Colton Dach (2)2–4
- P37:07Albert Johansson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (27), Marco Kasper (6)1–4
- P35:00Andrew Copp Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (8), Patrick Kane (16)1–3
- P20:41Lucas Raymond Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (17), Patrick Kane (15)1–2
- P110:56Ryan Donato Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (27), Ilya Mikheyev (6)1–1
- P14:26Alex DeBrincat Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (14), Justin Holl (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:26Alex DeBrincat Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (14), Justin Holl (4)CHI 0 – 1 DET · DET 62% → 75% +13DET 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:56Ryan Donato Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (27), Ilya Mikheyev (6)CHI 1 – 1 DET · CHI 25% → 39% +14CHI 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P20:41Lucas Raymond Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (17), Patrick Kane (15)CHI 1 – 2 DET · DET 60% → 76% +16DET 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P35:00Andrew Copp Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (8), Patrick Kane (16)CHI 1 – 3 DET · DET 81% → 95% +13DET 81% → 95%+13 pts
- P317:06Teuvo Teravainen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 3 – 4 DET · CHI <1% → 4% +4CHI <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CHI +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- DET: Elo 65.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- CHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +112 Elo | DET 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 45.9%30th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 30th of 325–16 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–21 | 24–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.