Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Nick CousinsAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints1
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:21Patrick Kane Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (18)2–3
- P35:00Joe Veleno Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (11), Tyler Motte (2)2–2
- P219:05Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (20), Tim Stützle (29)2–1
- P212:25Thomas Chabot Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (12), Nick Cousins (7)1–1
- P18:30Dylan Larkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (16), Lucas Raymond (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Dylan Larkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (16), Lucas Raymond (26)OTT 0 – 1 DET · DET 48% → 63% +15DET 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P212:25Thomas Chabot Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (12), Nick Cousins (7)OTT 1 – 1 DET · OTT 31% → 51% +21OTT 31% → 51%+21 pts
- P219:05Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (20), Tim Stützle (29)OTT 2 – 1 DET · OTT 51% → 74% +23OTT 51% → 74%+23 pts
- P35:00Joe Veleno Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (11), Tyler Motte (2)OTT 2 – 2 DET · DET 22% → 49% +26DET 22% → 49%+26 pts
- OT2:21Patrick Kane Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (18)OTT 2 – 3 DET · DET 50% → 96% +46DET 50% → 96%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 44.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +2 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +39 Elo | DET 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 19th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–23 | 23–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.