Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints3
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:43Mats Zuccarello Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (9)3–1
- P217:30William Eklund Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (16), Jake Walman (21)2–1
- P24:34Matt Boldy Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (19)2–0
- P15:51Marco Rossi Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (18), Matt Boldy (21)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Marco Rossi Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (18), Matt Boldy (21)MIN 1 – 0 SJ · MIN 63% → 76% +13MIN 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P24:34Matt Boldy Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (19)MIN 2 – 0 SJ · MIN 77% → 89% +12MIN 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P217:30William Eklund Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (16), Jake Walman (21)MIN 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 8% → 21% +13SJ 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P318:43Mats Zuccarello Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (9)MIN 3 – 1 SJ · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -195 / SJ +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- SJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 2.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +19 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +89 Elo | MIN 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 45.3%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215–6 | Road vs home | 8–1430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–20 | 28–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | — |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 19–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–0 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.