Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists2
- Logan O'ConnorPoints2
Wild- Zach BogosianGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Zach BogosianPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (7), Mikko Rantanen (35)6–1
- P37:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (9)5–1
- P34:23Parker Kelly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (4), Logan O'Connor (7)4–1
- P213:00Mikko Rantanen Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (53), Jonathan Drouin (6)3–1
- P118:27Zach Bogosian Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (10), Yakov Trenin (4)2–1
- P116:52Ross Colton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P13:46Logan O'Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Logan O'Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (8)COL 1 – 0 MIN · COL 58% → 72% +14COL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P116:52Ross Colton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 2 – 0 MIN · COL 73% → 85% +12COL 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P118:27Zach Bogosian Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (10), Yakov Trenin (4)COL 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 15% → 27% +12MIN 15% → 27%+12 pts
- P213:00Mikko Rantanen Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (53), Jonathan Drouin (6)COL 3 – 1 MIN · COL 75% → 89% +14COL 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P34:23Parker Kelly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (4), Logan O'Connor (7)COL 4 – 1 MIN · COL 94% → 99% +5COL 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -150 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.4 pts
- COL: Elo 42.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +52 Elo | MIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.4%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3213–8 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–26 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–20 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–0 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.