St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Dylan HollowayAssists2
- Justin FaulkPoints2
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Ryan HartmanAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:24Marcus Johansson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P33:57Matt Boldy Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (17)4–5
- P31:16Jake Middleton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (16)4–4
- P29:41Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (7), Marcus Johansson (11)4–3
- P24:33Robert Thomas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (7), Brandon Saad (7)4–2
- P22:51Jake Neighbours Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (4), Zack Bolduc (8)3–2
- P21:24Jordan Kyrou Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (13), Dylan Holloway (17)2–2
- P113:26Pavel Buchnevich Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (16), Justin Faulk (12)1–2
- P12:12Jon Merrill Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (12)0–2
- P11:23Zach Bogosian Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (9), Ryan Hartman (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:24Jordan Kyrou Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (13), Dylan Holloway (17)STL 2 – 2 MIN · STL 29% → 47% +17STL 29% → 47%+17 pts
- P22:51Jake Neighbours Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (4), Zack Bolduc (8)STL 3 – 2 MIN · STL 47% → 65% +18STL 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P29:41Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (7), Marcus Johansson (11)STL 4 – 3 MIN · MIN 17% → 33% +16MIN 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P31:16Jake Middleton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (16)STL 4 – 4 MIN · MIN 28% → 52% +25MIN 28% → 52%+25 pts
- P33:57Matt Boldy Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (17)STL 4 – 5 MIN · MIN 52% → 78% +25MIN 52% → 78%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML STL +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 13th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–17 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.