Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Zach BogosianAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:48Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (26), Tomas Hertl (17)1–4
- P315:40Tomas Hertl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (8), Shea Theodore (31)1–3
- P34:09Keegan Kolesar Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Zach Whitecloud (4), Nicolas Roy (8)1–2
- P25:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (25), Shea Theodore (30)1–1
- P112:09Ryan Hartman Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:09Ryan Hartman Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (6)MIN 1 – 0 VGK · MIN 38% → 54% +16MIN 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P25:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (25), Shea Theodore (30)MIN 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 41% → 60% +19VGK 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P34:09Keegan Kolesar Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Zach Whitecloud (4), Nicolas Roy (8)MIN 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 57% → 81% +24VGK 57% → 81%+24 pts
- P315:40Tomas Hertl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (8), Shea Theodore (31)MIN 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 93% → >99% +7VGK 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P317:48Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (26), Tomas Hertl (17)MIN 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML MIN +165 / VGK -195
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -175
- MIN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | VGK and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +56 Elo | VGK 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 52.9%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3216–6 | Road vs home | 17–63rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–20 | 25–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.