New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adam EdstromGoals1
- Jonny BrodzinskiAssists1
- Adam EdstromPoints1
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:57Adam Edstrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (3), Matt Rempe (1)2–1
- P29:54Vincent Trocheck Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (19), Artemi Panarin (28)1–1
- P26:16Mark Stone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (43), Tomas Hertl (16)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:16Mark Stone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (43), Tomas Hertl (16)NYR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 73% +18VGK 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P29:54Vincent Trocheck Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (19), Artemi Panarin (28)NYR 1 – 1 VGK · NYR 27% → 46% +19NYR 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P35:57Adam Edstrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (3), Matt Rempe (1)NYR 2 – 1 VGK · NYR 47% → 75% +28NYR 47% → 75%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML NYR +120 / VGK -140
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -128
- NYR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +70 Elo | VGK 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 52.8%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 17–52nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–27 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 0–2 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.