New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Ondrej PalatAssists1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints1
Rangers- Sam CarrickGoals1
- Sam CarrickPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:48Sam Carrick Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (12)2–3
- P217:13Artemi Panarin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (18), Adam Fox (31)2–2
- P28:28Jesper Bratt Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (34), Dougie Hamilton (22)2–1
- P24:03Jack Hughes Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brett Pesce (6), Ondrej Palat (9)1–1
- P112:05Adam Fox Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Vincent Trocheck (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:05Adam Fox Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Vincent Trocheck (15)NJ 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 43% → 59% +16NYR 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P24:03Jack Hughes Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brett Pesce (6), Ondrej Palat (9)NJ 1 – 1 NYR · NJ 38% → 56% +19NJ 38% → 56%+19 pts
- P28:28Jesper Bratt Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (34), Dougie Hamilton (22)NJ 2 – 1 NYR · NJ 56% → 74% +18NJ 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P217:13Artemi Panarin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (18), Adam Fox (31)NJ 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 24% → 45% +21NYR 24% → 45%+21 pts
- OT2:48Sam Carrick Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (12)NJ 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 48% → 97% +48NYR 48% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML NJ -150 / NYR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 48.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -138
- NYR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −6 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +8 Elo | NYR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 9th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–23 | 13–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–29 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–4 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.