New Jersey Devils at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Adam LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:01Ondrej Palat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (33), Dougie Hamilton (21)3–2
- P31:24Shane Wright Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (14), Jared McCann (16)2–2
- P219:35Paul Cotter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (11), Johnathan Kovacevic (11)2–1
- P115:47Adam Larsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (21)1–1
- P17:56Dawson Mercer Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (17), Timo Meier (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:56Dawson Mercer Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (17), Timo Meier (15)NJ 1 – 0 SEA · NJ 68% → 81% +12NJ 68% → 81%+12 pts
- P115:47Adam Larsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (21)NJ 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 19% → 33% +14SEA 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P219:35Paul Cotter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (11), Johnathan Kovacevic (11)NJ 2 – 1 SEA · NJ 62% → 82% +21NJ 62% → 82%+21 pts
- P31:24Shane Wright Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (14), Jared McCann (16)NJ 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 17% → 39% +21SEA 17% → 39%+21 pts
- P32:01Ondrej Palat Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (33), Dougie Hamilton (21)NJ 3 – 2 SEA · NJ 61% → 83% +22NJ 61% → 83%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 69%
- ML NJ -260 / SEA +215
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 56.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- NJ -227
- SEA +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 2.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −12 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +44 Elo | NJ 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.2% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 9th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–22 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–28 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–0 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.