New York Rangers at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Sam CarrickAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Utah HC- Matias MaccelliGoals2
- Barrett HaytonAssists2
- Matias MaccelliPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:22Artemi Panarin Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (9), Adam Fox (32)5–3
- P310:22Chris Kreider Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (8)4–3
- P30:28Reilly Smith Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (9), Ryan Lindgren (8)3–3
- P20:57Logan Cooley Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (30), Nick Schmaltz (26)2–3
- P116:25Arthur Kaliyev Goal (1) Poke, assists: Filip Chytil (8), Urho Vaakanainen (3)2–2
- P18:12Matias Maccelli Goal (7) Poke, assists: Barrett Hayton (12), Mikhail Sergachev (22)1–2
- P13:42Artemi Panarin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (14)1–1
- P11:01Matias Maccelli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (11), Ian Cole (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:12Matias Maccelli Goal (7) Poke, assists: Barrett Hayton (12), Mikhail Sergachev (22)NYR 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 48% → 63% +15UTAH 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P116:25Arthur Kaliyev Goal (1) Poke, assists: Filip Chytil (8), Urho Vaakanainen (3)NYR 2 – 2 UTAH · NYR 35% → 52% +17NYR 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P20:57Logan Cooley Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (30), Nick Schmaltz (26)NYR 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 48% → 66% +18UTAH 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P30:28Reilly Smith Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (9), Ryan Lindgren (8)NYR 3 – 3 UTAH · NYR 27% → 51% +24NYR 27% → 51%+24 pts
- P310:22Chris Kreider Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (8)NYR 4 – 3 UTAH · NYR 51% → 82% +32NYR 51% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML NYR -120 / UTAH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 49.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- UTAH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +6 Elo | UTAH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 13th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 6–1432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–27 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.