New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Sam CarrickGoals1
- Sam CarrickAssists1
- Sam CarrickPoints2
Avalanche- Parker KellyGoals1
- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Parker KellyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:23Devon Toews Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (55), Logan O'Connor (8)2–3
- P318:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (36), Nathan MacKinnon (54)2–2
- P29:59Adam Edstrom Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (7)2–1
- P111:55Sam Carrick Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P14:53Parker Kelly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (3), Cale Makar (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Parker Kelly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (3), Cale Makar (37)NYR 0 – 1 COL · COL 58% → 72% +14COL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P111:55Sam Carrick Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 1 COL · NYR 28% → 43% +15NYR 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P29:59Adam Edstrom Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (7)NYR 2 – 1 COL · NYR 44% → 65% +20NYR 44% → 65%+20 pts
- P318:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (36), Nathan MacKinnon (54)NYR 2 – 2 COL · COL <1% → 51% +51COL <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:23Devon Toews Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (55), Logan O'Connor (8)NYR 2 – 3 COL · COL 51% → >99% +49COL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML NYR +130 / COL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- COL: Elo 60.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -138
- NYR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +71 Elo | COL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 12–913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–27 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.