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Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalAltitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20), NHL Net

Away

Avalanche

26-17-1

0–3

at

Home

Jets

29-12-3

COL 54%WPG 46%

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Canada Life Centre · Altitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20), NHL Net

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored COL favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3WPG50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

    Scoring summary

    • P319:03Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (15), Alex Iafallo (9)0–3
    • P215:53Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (32), Josh Morrissey (34)0–2
    • P11:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (4)0–1

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P11:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (4)COL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 46% → 60% +15
    2. P215:53Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (32), Josh Morrissey (34)COL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 69% → 86% +17
    3. P319:03Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (15), Alex Iafallo (9)COL 0 – 3 WPG · WPG >99% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Avalanche 54%

    Toss-upMiss
    COL 54%WPG 46%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    COL 54%
    ML COL -130 / WPG +110
    Pre-line forecast
    COL 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    COL 47%
    Ratings vs. market
    −7.1 pts
    COL: Elo 47.2%, market 54.3%
    Fair odds
    COL -119
    WPG +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    COL 3.4 – 3.1 WPG
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCOLWPGWhy
    Team rating15491556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest—−30WPG on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies+4+11COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsWPG +19 EloWPG 52.8%
    Market-implied ratingsCOL 55.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCOL 53.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCOL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
    COLStatWPG
    6th of 323.4Goals scored3.63rd of 32
    20th of 323.1Goals allowed2.53rd of 32
    11th of 32+0.3Margin+1.01st of 32
    7th of 3252.8%Shot share49.1%19th of 32
    25th of 3289.4%Save percentage92.1%1st of 32
    1st of 328–2Last 105–511th of 32
    3rd of 3214–8Road vs home15–76th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    AvalancheJets
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCOLWPG
    Puck line17–2623–20
    Last 107–36–4
    Favorite13–2017–14
    Underdog4–66–6
    Overs–unders23–2021–22
    Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    COL 5–5 WPG in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.