Winnipeg Jets at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints2
Utah HC- Barrett HaytonGoals1
- Barrett HaytonAssists2
- Barrett HaytonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:55Clayton Keller Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (28)2–5
- P311:48Dylan DeMelo Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (26), Dylan Samberg (5)2–4
- P38:32Nino Niederreiter Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (25), Mark Scheifele (27)1–4
- P38:04Matias Maccelli Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (3), Barrett Hayton (14)0–4
- P34:53Barrett Hayton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (2), Kevin Stenlund (5)0–3
- P219:42Logan Cooley Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (13)0–2
- P216:00Olli Maatta Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (27), Clayton Keller (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:00Olli Maatta Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (27), Clayton Keller (34)WPG 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 65% +23UTAH 43% → 65%+23 pts
- P219:42Logan Cooley Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (13)WPG 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 68% → 86% +18UTAH 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P34:53Barrett Hayton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (2), Kevin Stenlund (5)WPG 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 90% → 98% +7UTAH 90% → 98%+7 pts
- P38:04Matias Maccelli Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (3), Barrett Hayton (14)WPG 0 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 99% → >99% +1UTAH 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P311:48Dylan DeMelo Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (26), Dylan Samberg (5)WPG 2 – 4 UTAH · WPG <1% → 3% +3WPG <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 61%
- ML WPG -175 / UTAH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- WPG -159
- UTAH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 2.4 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −12 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +69 Elo | WPG 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3213–8 | Road vs home | 7–1532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–22 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.