Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints1
Jets- Dylan DeMeloGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:33Dylan DeMelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (24)1–2
- P29:35Mark Scheifele Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (34), Josh Morrissey (35)1–1
- P18:12Matty Beniers Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kaapo Kakko (16), Jaden Schwartz (17)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:12Matty Beniers Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kaapo Kakko (16), Jaden Schwartz (17)SEA 1 – 0 WPG · SEA 34% → 50% +15SEA 34% → 50%+15 pts
- P29:35Mark Scheifele Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (34), Josh Morrissey (35)SEA 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 42% → 62% +20WPG 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P319:33Dylan DeMelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (24)SEA 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 51% → >99% +49WPG 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 67%
- ML SEA +190 / WPG -225
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 68.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- WPG -201
- SEA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +12 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +133 Elo | WPG 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 17–75th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–22 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 18–14 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.