Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Sabres- Sam LaffertyGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:25Brandon Tanev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (19), Jamie Oleksiak (6)6–2
- P35:26Kaapo Kakko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (18), Shane Wright (12)5–2
- P33:46Kaapo Kakko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joshua Mahura (3), Jaden Schwartz (14)4–2
- P33:08Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P219:12Andre Burakovsky Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Joshua Mahura (2), Chandler Stephenson (24)2–2
- P212:48Ryker Evans Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (23)1–2
- P117:17Jack Quinn Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (25), JJ Peterka (22)0–2
- P12:37Sam Lafferty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (10), JJ Peterka (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Sam Lafferty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (10), JJ Peterka (21)SEA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 54% → 68% +14BUF 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P212:48Ryker Evans Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (23)SEA 1 – 2 BUF · SEA 12% → 27% +15SEA 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P219:12Andre Burakovsky Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Joshua Mahura (2), Chandler Stephenson (24)SEA 2 – 2 BUF · SEA 25% → 47% +23SEA 25% → 47%+23 pts
- P33:08Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 3 – 2 BUF · SEA 48% → 74% +26SEA 48% → 74%+26 pts
- P33:46Kaapo Kakko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joshua Mahura (3), Jaden Schwartz (14)SEA 4 – 2 BUF · SEA 74% → 91% +17SEA 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML SEA +110 / BUF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 56.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +46 Elo | BUF 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 47.9%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 23rd of 328–12 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–21 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.