Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals2
- Ryan McLeodAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints3
SenatorsScoring summary
- P210:22Ryan McLeod Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (24), Alex Tuch (17)4–0
- P24:11Dylan Cozens Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P113:17Jack Quinn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (9), Ryan McLeod (14)2–0
- P110:17Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (13), Zach Benson (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:17Jack Quinn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (13), Zach Benson (7)BUF 1 – 0 OTT · BUF 43% → 59% +16BUF 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P113:17Jack Quinn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (9), Ryan McLeod (14)BUF 2 – 0 OTT · BUF 59% → 74% +15BUF 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P24:11Dylan Cozens Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 0 OTT · BUF 78% → 90% +11BUF 78% → 90%+11 pts
- P210:22Ryan McLeod Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (24), Alex Tuch (17)BUF 4 – 0 OTT · BUF 92% → 97% +5BUF 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML BUF +130 / OTT -150
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -138
- BUF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +42 Elo | OTT 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 25th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 10–712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–21 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 16–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–2 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.