Seattle Kraken at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals2
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints2
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- Denton MateychukPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:31Kirill Marchenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (2)2–6
- P38:44Eeli Tolvanen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (22), Brandon Montour (15)2–5
- P215:45Kent Johnson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (35), Dante Fabbro (7)1–5
- P212:27Denton Mateychuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (8), Luca Del Bel Belluz (1)1–4
- P210:53Zach Werenski Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (11), Dmitri Voronkov (12)1–3
- P23:29Luca Del Bel Belluz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (7), Damon Severson (12)1–2
- P112:08Eeli Tolvanen Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (11), Jared McCann (17)1–1
- P111:58Sean Kuraly Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (16), Mathieu Olivier (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:58Sean Kuraly Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Provorov (16), Mathieu Olivier (7)SEA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 47% → 63% +16CBJ 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P112:08Eeli Tolvanen Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (11), Jared McCann (17)SEA 1 – 1 CBJ · SEA 37% → 53% +16SEA 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P23:29Luca Del Bel Belluz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (7), Damon Severson (12)SEA 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 47% → 66% +18CBJ 47% → 66%+18 pts
- P210:53Zach Werenski Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (11), Dmitri Voronkov (12)SEA 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 84% +16CBJ 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P212:27Denton Mateychuk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (8), Luca Del Bel Belluz (1)SEA 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 85% → 94% +9CBJ 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -125 / CBJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 42.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +1 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +50 Elo | CBJ 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 51.0%10th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 20th of 328–11 | Road vs home | 13–810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22 | 28–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.