Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:54Matty Beniers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (16), Kaapo Kakko (15)2–6
- P218:00Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (15), Vince Dunn (11)1–6
- P215:21Dylan Larkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (17), Moritz Seider (22)0–6
- P24:17Erik Gustafsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (12), Marco Kasper (7)0–5
- P17:53Patrick Kane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (9), Andrew Copp (10)0–4
- P16:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (29), Moritz Seider (21)0–3
- P13:33J.T. Compher Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (11), Albert Johansson (2)0–2
- P13:22Marco Kasper Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (19), Lucas Raymond (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:22Marco Kasper Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (19), Lucas Raymond (28)SEA 0 – 1 DET · DET 61% → 74% +13DET 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P13:33J.T. Compher Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (11), Albert Johansson (2)SEA 0 – 2 DET · DET 74% → 85% +10DET 74% → 85%+10 pts
- P16:16Alex DeBrincat Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (29), Moritz Seider (21)SEA 0 – 3 DET · DET 85% → 92% +7DET 85% → 92%+7 pts
- P17:53Patrick Kane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (9), Andrew Copp (10)SEA 0 – 4 DET · DET 93% → 97% +4DET 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P24:17Erik Gustafsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (12), Marco Kasper (7)SEA 0 – 5 DET · DET 98% → >99% +1DET 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML SEA +150 / DET -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 65.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -159
- SEA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +109 Elo | DET 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 19th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–21 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.