Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Nils HoglanderPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists3
- Gabriel VilardiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:16Nils Hoglander Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none1–6
- P31:31Mark Scheifele Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (23), Kyle Connor (33)0–6
- P215:06Nino Niederreiter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Kupari (2), Cole Perfetti (18)0–5
- P20:39Neal Pionk Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (17), Nino Niederreiter (13)0–4
- P113:37Kyle Connor Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (22), Mark Scheifele (26)0–3
- P113:01Kyle Connor Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Neal Pionk (24), Gabriel Vilardi (21)0–2
- P16:59Kyle Connor Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:59Kyle Connor Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (20)VAN 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 59% → 73% +14WPG 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P113:01Kyle Connor Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Neal Pionk (24), Gabriel Vilardi (21)VAN 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 74% → 85% +12WPG 74% → 85%+12 pts
- P113:37Kyle Connor Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (22), Mark Scheifele (26)VAN 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 85% → 93% +8WPG 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P20:39Neal Pionk Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (17), Nino Niederreiter (13)VAN 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 94% → 98% +4WPG 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P215:06Nino Niederreiter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Kupari (2), Cole Perfetti (18)VAN 0 – 5 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +1WPG >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML VAN +140 / WPG -165
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 64.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -149
- VAN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +12 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +104 Elo | WPG 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 9th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 16–75th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–24 | 24–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–2 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.