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Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Canucks

19-13-10

3–0

at

Home

Maple Leafs

27-15-2

VAN 38%TOR 62%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored VAN favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Maple Leafs

    Scoring summary

    • P30:47Kiefer Sherwood Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (38), Tyler Myers (10)3–0
    • P218:12Quinn Hughes Goal (9) , assists: none2–0
    • P10:31Brock Boeser Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (9), Elias Pettersson (19)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P10:31Brock Boeser Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (9), Elias Pettersson (19)VAN 1 – 0 TOR · VAN 38% → 52% +14
    2. P218:12Quinn Hughes Goal (9) , assists: noneVAN 2 – 0 TOR · VAN 66% → 85% +19
    3. P30:47Kiefer Sherwood Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (38), Tyler Myers (10)VAN 3 – 0 TOR · VAN 87% → 96% +9

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Maple Leafs 62%

    SolidMiss
    VAN 38%TOR 62%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    TOR 62%
    ML VAN +155 / TOR -185
    Pre-line forecast
    TOR 65%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    TOR 64%
    Ratings vs. market
    +1.5 pts
    TOR: Elo 63.9%, market 62.3%
    Fair odds
    TOR -166
    VAN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    VAN 2.4 – 3.1 TOR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorVANTORWhy
    Team rating14981534Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest−30—VAN on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies−5−7VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsTOR +99 EloTOR 63.9%
    Market-implied ratingsTOR 65.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastTOR 65.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastTOR 62.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
    VANStatTOR
    19th of 323.0Goals scored3.112th of 32
    22nd of 323.2Goals allowed2.811th of 32
    18th of 32−0.2Margin+0.310th of 32
    25th of 3248.1%Shot share49.1%20th of 32
    28th of 3289.1%Save percentage91.4%2nd of 32
    31st of 322–8Last 106–48th of 32
    9th of 3211–9Road vs home17–75th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    CanucksMaple Leafs
    13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonVANTOR
    Puck line17–2422–21
    Last 102–83–7
    Favorite7–1615–18
    Underdog10–87–3
    Overs–unders21–2021–22
    Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    VAN 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.