Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- Max DomiAssists1
- Nick RobertsonPoints1
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals3
- Jordan MartinookAssists3
- Jordan StaalPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:23Seth Jarvis Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none3–6
- P30:20Jordan Staal Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (11), Jordan Martinook (12)3–5
- P24:58Jackson Blake Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Juha Jaaska (1), Dmitry Orlov (15)3–4
- P21:11Auston Matthews Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (11), Mitch Marner (45)3–3
- P20:35Jordan Staal Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (11), Jaccob Slavin (11)2–3
- P114:15Jordan Staal Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (17), Jordan Martinook (10)2–2
- P113:58Eric Robinson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Smith (1), Martin Necas (33)2–1
- P17:29William Nylander Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P11:59Nicholas Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (12), Steven Lorentz (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:58Eric Robinson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Smith (1), Martin Necas (33)TOR 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 28% → 43% +15CAR 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P114:15Jordan Staal Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (17), Jordan Martinook (10)TOR 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 43% → 59% +17CAR 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P20:35Jordan Staal Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (11), Jaccob Slavin (11)TOR 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 59% → 75% +16CAR 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P21:11Auston Matthews Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (11), Mitch Marner (45)TOR 3 – 3 CAR · TOR 25% → 41% +16TOR 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P24:58Jackson Blake Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Juha Jaaska (1), Dmitry Orlov (15)TOR 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 58% → 75% +17CAR 58% → 75%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML TOR +145 / CAR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- TOR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +52 Elo | CAR 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 55.8%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 15–54th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–20 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.