Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Darren RaddyshPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:08Brayden Point Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (39), Jake Guentzel (19)2–3
- P39:56Jordan Staal Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (10)2–2
- P29:17Nick Paul Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (13), Conor Geekie (6)1–2
- P26:31Andrei Svechnikov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (13)1–1
- P116:38Brandon Hagel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:38Brandon Hagel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (12)CAR 0 – 1 TB · TB 49% → 66% +17TB 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P26:31Andrei Svechnikov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (13)CAR 1 – 1 TB · CAR 32% → 51% +19CAR 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P29:17Nick Paul Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (13), Conor Geekie (6)CAR 1 – 2 TB · TB 49% → 69% +20TB 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P39:56Jordan Staal Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (10)CAR 2 – 2 TB · CAR 19% → 50% +31CAR 19% → 50%+31 pts
- P319:08Brayden Point Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (39), Jake Guentzel (19)CAR 2 – 3 TB · TB 50% → >99% +50TB 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 51%
- ML CAR -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 46.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 2.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 16th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 11–710th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–20 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.