Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P21:37Andrei Svechnikov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (14)0–2
- P114:41Jordan Staal Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (16)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:41Jordan Staal Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (16)VAN 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 60% → 75% +15CAR 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P21:37Andrei Svechnikov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (14)VAN 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 75% → 87% +12CAR 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML VAN +150 / CAR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -159
- VAN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −9 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CAR: Dustin Tokarski: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +44 Elo | CAR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 55.6%1st of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 7th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 16–53rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–23 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–1 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.