Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jamie OleksiakGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists2
- Adam LarssonPoints2
Penguins- Philip TomasinoGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:57Kaapo Kakko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (8)4–2
- P38:54Eeli Tolvanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (13), Joshua Mahura (4)3–2
- P38:04Jamie Oleksiak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (16), Adam Larsson (7)2–2
- P24:42Bryan Rust Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (28), Evgeni Malkin (25)1–2
- P19:19Philip Tomasino Goal (5) Poke, assists: Drew O'Connor (10), Kris Letang (10)1–1
- P12:12Chandler Stephenson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (20), Joey Daccord (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:12Chandler Stephenson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (20), Joey Daccord (1)SEA 1 – 0 PIT · SEA 46% → 61% +15SEA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P19:19Philip Tomasino Goal (5) Poke, assists: Drew O'Connor (10), Kris Letang (10)SEA 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 38% → 54% +16PIT 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P24:42Bryan Rust Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (28), Evgeni Malkin (25)SEA 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 53% → 71% +18PIT 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P38:04Jamie Oleksiak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (16), Adam Larsson (7)SEA 2 – 2 PIT · SEA 19% → 48% +29SEA 19% → 48%+29 pts
- P38:54Eeli Tolvanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (13), Joshua Mahura (4)SEA 3 – 2 PIT · SEA 48% → 79% +31SEA 48% → 79%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML SEA +110 / PIT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | −5 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +24 Elo | PIT 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 47.9%27th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–13 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–22 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.