Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Claude GirouxAssists3
- Claude GirouxPoints3
PenguinsScoring summary
- P27:06Tim Stützle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (18), Nick Jensen (13)5–0
- P20:41Drake Batherson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (9), Jake Sanderson (21)4–0
- P119:04Shane Pinto Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (7)3–0
- P15:14Shane Pinto Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (17), Thomas Chabot (16)2–0
- P13:16Tyler Kleven Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (16), Adam Gaudette (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:16Tyler Kleven Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (16), Adam Gaudette (5)OTT 1 – 0 PIT · OTT 51% → 66% +15OTT 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P15:14Shane Pinto Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (17), Thomas Chabot (16)OTT 2 – 0 PIT · OTT 66% → 79% +13OTT 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P119:04Shane Pinto Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (7)OTT 3 – 0 PIT · OTT 82% → 91% +9OTT 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P20:41Drake Batherson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (9), Jake Sanderson (21)OTT 4 – 0 PIT · OTT 92% → 97% +5OTT 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P27:06Tim Stützle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (18), Nick Jensen (13)OTT 5 – 0 PIT · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML OTT -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 45.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +29 Elo | PIT 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 329–13 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–25 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–0 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.