Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:39Nick Paul Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (21), Ryan McDonagh (13)5–2
- P318:48Anthony Cirelli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (42), Brandon Hagel (28)4–2
- P316:57Nikita Kucherov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P32:17Kevin Hayes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (16), Sidney Crosby (36)2–2
- P216:04Nikita Kucherov Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (26), Jake Guentzel (20)2–1
- P26:54Brandon Hagel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (19), Emil Lilleberg (9)1–1
- P114:20Rickard Rakell Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (17), Marcus Pettersson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:20Rickard Rakell Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (17), Marcus Pettersson (14)TB 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 43% → 60% +17PIT 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P26:54Brandon Hagel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (19), Emil Lilleberg (9)TB 1 – 1 PIT · TB 37% → 56% +19TB 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P216:04Nikita Kucherov Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (26), Jake Guentzel (20)TB 2 – 1 PIT · TB 55% → 76% +21TB 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P32:17Kevin Hayes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (16), Sidney Crosby (36)TB 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 22% → 46% +24PIT 22% → 46%+24 pts
- P316:57Nikita Kucherov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 3 – 2 PIT · TB 52% → 95% +43TB 52% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML TB -150 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -138
- PIT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −3 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +19 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 15th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–18 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.