Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints3
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:55Blake Coleman Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none3–1
- P32:15Adam Lowry Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (7), Logan Stanley (7)2–1
- P215:14Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (15), Rory Kerins (4)2–0
- P113:32Matt Coronato Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (14)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:32Matt Coronato Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (14)CGY 1 – 0 WPG · CGY 42% → 58% +16CGY 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P215:14Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (15), Rory Kerins (4)CGY 2 – 0 WPG · CGY 66% → 84% +18CGY 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P32:15Adam Lowry Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (7), Logan Stanley (7)CGY 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 11% → 29% +18WPG 11% → 29%+18 pts
- P318:55Blake Coleman Goal (10) Backhand, assists: noneCGY 3 – 1 WPG · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 59%
- ML CGY +135 / WPG -160
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 62.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -145
- CGY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −28 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.70 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +90 Elo | WPG 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 27th of 327–14 | Road vs home | 18–75th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–21 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 18–15 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–27 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.