Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Rory KerinsAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints1
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals2
- Dylan HollowayAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:39Brayden Schenn Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (11), Justin Faulk (15)1–4
- P211:14Yegor Sharangovich Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (6), Rory Kerins (3)1–3
- P115:40Jordan Kyrou Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (19), Tyler Tucker (2)0–3
- P113:53Colton Parayko Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (12), Robert Thomas (23)0–2
- P14:55Brayden Schenn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:55Brayden Schenn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (18)CGY 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 69% +14STL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P113:53Colton Parayko Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (12), Robert Thomas (23)CGY 0 – 2 STL · STL 70% → 83% +13STL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P115:40Jordan Kyrou Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (19), Tyler Tucker (2)CGY 0 – 3 STL · STL 83% → 92% +9STL 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P211:14Yegor Sharangovich Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Pelletier (6), Rory Kerins (3)CGY 1 – 3 STL · CGY 5% → 13% +8CGY 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P217:39Brayden Schenn Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (11), Justin Faulk (15)CGY 1 – 4 STL · STL 90% → 97% +7STL 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML CGY +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- STL: Elo 55.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +38 Elo | STL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 27th of 327–13 | Road vs home | 10–1121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–20 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–5 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.