Anaheim Ducks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Nikita NesterenkoGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Sam ColangeloPoints1
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:38Sam Colangelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (17), Radko Gudas (9)2–6
- P28:02Pavel Buchnevich Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (9), Ryan Suter (8)1–6
- P24:45Robert Thomas Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (18), Brandon Saad (8)1–5
- P116:00Nikita Nesterenko Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10)1–4
- P113:55Dylan Holloway Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (19), Brayden Schenn (16)0–4
- P16:40Jordan Kyrou Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (10), Brayden Schenn (15)0–3
- P14:31Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (5), Zack Bolduc (9)0–2
- P12:45Robert Thomas Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:45Robert Thomas Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneANA 0 – 1 STL · STL 63% → 76% +13STL 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P14:31Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (5), Zack Bolduc (9)ANA 0 – 2 STL · STL 76% → 86% +10STL 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P16:40Jordan Kyrou Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Cam Fowler (10), Brayden Schenn (15)ANA 0 – 3 STL · STL 87% → 93% +7STL 87% → 93%+7 pts
- P113:55Dylan Holloway Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (19), Brayden Schenn (16)ANA 0 – 4 STL · STL 94% → 98% +4STL 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P116:00Nikita Nesterenko Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10)ANA 1 – 4 STL · ANA 2% → 6% +3ANA 2% → 6%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 64%
- ML ANA +165 / STL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- STL: Elo 60.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -175
- ANA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +76 Elo | STL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–12 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 12–28 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–3 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.