Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints1
Blues- Justin FaulkAssists1
- Justin FaulkPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:48Colton Parayko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (10), Justin Faulk (14)2–1
- P216:51Cole Sillinger Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (9), Luca Del Bel Belluz (2)2–0
- P115:38Adam Fantilli Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (29), Dmitri Voronkov (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:38Adam Fantilli Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (29), Dmitri Voronkov (13)CBJ 1 – 0 STL · CBJ 37% → 54% +17CBJ 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P216:51Cole Sillinger Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (9), Luca Del Bel Belluz (2)CBJ 2 – 0 STL · CBJ 64% → 82% +19CBJ 64% → 82%+19 pts
- P319:48Colton Parayko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (10), Justin Faulk (14)CBJ 2 – 1 STL · STL 0% → <1% +0STL 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- STL 65%
- ML CBJ +175 / STL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- STL: Elo 59.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -186
- CBJ +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +70 Elo | STL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–15 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–19 | 25–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–13 | 20–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–0 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.