Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Kevin BahlGoals1
- Martin PospisilAssists1
- Kevin BahlPoints1
Blues- Radek FaksaGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Radek FaksaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:11Radek Faksa Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Tucker (1), Alexey Toropchenko (6)1–2
- P36:06Kevin Bahl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (11)1–1
- P10:49Colton Parayko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Cam Fowler (11)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:49Colton Parayko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Cam Fowler (11)CGY 0 – 1 STL · STL 61% → 74% +13STL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P36:06Kevin Bahl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (11)CGY 1 – 1 STL · CGY 18% → 44% +26CGY 18% → 44%+26 pts
- P311:11Radek Faksa Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Tucker (1), Alexey Toropchenko (6)CGY 1 – 2 STL · STL 54% → 86% +31STL 54% → 86%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML CGY +150 / STL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- STL: Elo 63.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +1 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +95 Elo | STL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 27th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–20 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–4 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.