Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Rory KerinsAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Blackhawks- Louis CrevierGoals1
- Lukas ReichelAssists1
- Louis CrevierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:38Yegor Sharangovich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (14)5–2
- P211:29Connor Bedard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (12), Teuvo Teravainen (21)4–2
- P21:55Jake Bean Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6), Jakob Pelletier (5)4–1
- P114:08Mikael Backlund Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Matt Coronato (13), Blake Coleman (13)3–1
- P111:47Jakob Pelletier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (12), Rory Kerins (2)2–1
- P12:38Louis Crevier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (9)1–1
- P11:14Jakob Pelletier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Rory Kerins (1), Brayden Pachal (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:14Jakob Pelletier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Rory Kerins (1), Brayden Pachal (2)CGY 1 – 0 CHI · CGY 60% → 73% +13CGY 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P12:38Louis Crevier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (9)CGY 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 27% → 40% +13CHI 27% → 40%+13 pts
- P111:47Jakob Pelletier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (12), Rory Kerins (2)CGY 2 – 1 CHI · CGY 59% → 74% +15CGY 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P114:08Mikael Backlund Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Matt Coronato (13), Blake Coleman (13)CGY 3 – 1 CHI · CGY 74% → 85% +12CGY 74% → 85%+12 pts
- P21:55Jake Bean Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (6), Jakob Pelletier (5)CGY 4 – 1 CHI · CGY 87% → 94% +7CGY 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 60%
- ML CGY -165 / CHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CGY: Elo 56.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CGY -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +2 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +42 Elo | CGY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 45.3%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 27th of 326–12 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 16–25 | 20–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.