St. Louis Blues at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Tyler TuckerGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Tyler TuckerPoints1
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Clayton KellerPoints4
Scoring summary
- P210:42Logan Cooley Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (33), Juuso Valimaki (3)2–4
- P21:32Jake Neighbours Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (20), Brayden Schenn (18)2–3
- P110:31Clayton Keller Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (27)1–3
- P18:25Nick Schmaltz Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (32), John Marino (1)1–2
- P16:06Michael Kesselring Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (26), Clayton Keller (31)1–1
- P12:05Tyler Tucker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:05Tyler Tucker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (6)STL 1 – 0 UTAH · STL 49% → 63% +15STL 49% → 63%+15 pts
- P16:06Michael Kesselring Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (26), Clayton Keller (31)STL 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 36% → 51% +15UTAH 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P18:25Nick Schmaltz Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (32), John Marino (1)STL 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 66% +15UTAH 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P21:32Jake Neighbours Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (20), Brayden Schenn (18)STL 2 – 3 UTAH · STL 18% → 32% +14STL 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P210:42Logan Cooley Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (33), Juuso Valimaki (3)STL 2 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 71% → 86% +15UTAH 71% → 86%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 51%
- ML STL -105 / UTAH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- UTAH: Elo 49.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −16 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +3 Elo | STL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 15th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 6–1532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–20 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26 | 19–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.