Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- David JiricekGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- David JiricekPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11Brady Skjei Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (27), Jonathan Marchessault (20)2–6
- P316:20Filip Forsberg Goal (15) Backhand, assists: none2–5
- P32:28Matt Boldy Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (22)2–4
- P22:07Fedor Svechkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (5)1–4
- P20:54Steven Stamkos Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (26), Roman Josi (24)1–3
- P117:29Filip Forsberg Goal (14) Poke, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (14), Roman Josi (23)1–2
- P18:22Colton Sissons Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (4), Luke Schenn (2)1–1
- P16:23David Jiricek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (23), Marco Rossi (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23David Jiricek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (23), Marco Rossi (23)MIN 1 – 0 NSH · MIN 38% → 53% +15MIN 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P18:22Colton Sissons Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (4), Luke Schenn (2)MIN 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 47% → 62% +15NSH 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P117:29Filip Forsberg Goal (14) Poke, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (14), Roman Josi (23)MIN 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 61% → 76% +15NSH 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P20:54Steven Stamkos Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (26), Roman Josi (24)MIN 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 76% → 88% +12NSH 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P22:07Fedor Svechkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (5)MIN 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 88% → 95% +7NSH 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 63%
- ML MIN +160 / NSH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- NSH: Elo 52.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −2 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +17 Elo | NSH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.3%13th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 1st of 3216–7 | Road vs home | 10–1122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–22 | 19–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 16–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.