Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Alec MartinezGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Nick BlankenburgAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Steven Stamkos Goal Wrist Shot1–3
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Snap Shot1–3
- SO0:00Teuvo Teravainen Goal Wrist Shot1–3
- SO0:00Gustav Nyquist Goal Wrist Shot1–3
- P316:57Filip Forsberg Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (3)2–2
- P27:57Alec Martinez Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (13), Tyler Bertuzzi (10)2–1
- P26:30Connor Bedard Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (9)1–1
- P18:07Steven Stamkos Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (22), Jonathan Marchessault (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:07Steven Stamkos Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (22), Jonathan Marchessault (19)CHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 70% → 82% +12NSH 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P26:30Connor Bedard Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (9)CHI 1 – 1 NSH · CHI 18% → 33% +15CHI 18% → 33%+15 pts
- P27:57Alec Martinez Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (13), Tyler Bertuzzi (10)CHI 2 – 1 NSH · CHI 34% → 53% +19CHI 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P316:57Filip Forsberg Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (3)CHI 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 7% → 55% +48NSH 7% → 55%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 72%
- ML CHI +240 / NSH -300
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 66.8%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- NSH -255
- CHI +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.1 – 3.4 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +121 Elo | NSH 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 72.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.728th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.2% | Shot share | 50.0%15th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 31st of 325–17 | Road vs home | 9–1123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–23 | 19–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–5 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.