Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals3
- Victor OlofssonAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints3
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:58Ryan O'Reilly Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (5)3–5
- P315:20Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (7), Shea Theodore (32)3–4
- P214:02Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (19), Mark Stone (27)2–4
- P29:12Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (6), Tomas Hertl (18)1–4
- P28:41Steven Stamkos Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (18)0–4
- P25:29Justin Barron Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (21), Gustav Nyquist (11)0–3
- P112:06Filip Forsberg Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (14)0–2
- P19:44Steven Stamkos Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:44Steven Stamkos Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (25)VGK 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 45% → 61% +16NSH 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P112:06Filip Forsberg Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (14)VGK 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 61% → 76% +14NSH 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P25:29Justin Barron Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (21), Gustav Nyquist (11)VGK 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 81% → 91% +10NSH 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P214:02Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (19), Mark Stone (27)VGK 2 – 4 NSH · VGK 6% → 15% +10VGK 6% → 15%+10 pts
- P315:20Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (7), Shea Theodore (32)VGK 3 – 4 NSH · VGK <1% → 10% +10VGK <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML VGK -135 / NSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +27 Elo | VGK 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.123rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–17 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–15 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 15–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.