Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Predators- Roman JosiAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:01Alex Ovechkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P314:54Andrew Mangiapane Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brandon Duhaime (6), John Carlson (24)3–1
- P38:30Ethen Frank Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (9), Martin Fehervary (10)2–1
- P216:14Filip Forsberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (17), Roman Josi (20)1–1
- P29:03Tom Wilson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (34), Alex Ovechkin (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:03Tom Wilson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (34), Alex Ovechkin (12)WSH 1 – 0 NSH · WSH 45% → 65% +20WSH 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P216:14Filip Forsberg Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (17), Roman Josi (20)WSH 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 32% → 55% +22NSH 32% → 55%+22 pts
- P38:30Ethen Frank Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (9), Martin Fehervary (10)WSH 2 – 1 NSH · WSH 47% → 77% +31WSH 47% → 77%+31 pts
- P314:54Andrew Mangiapane Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brandon Duhaime (6), John Carlson (24)WSH 3 – 1 NSH · WSH 88% → >99% +11WSH 88% → >99%+11 pts
- P319:01Alex Ovechkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneWSH 4 – 1 NSH · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 57%
- ML WSH +125 / NSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 50.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NSH -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −2 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +4 Elo | NSH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3213–7 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–17 | 18–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 15–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.