Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Liam OhgrenAssists2
- Jake MiddletonPoints2
Avalanche- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Samuel GirardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:43Brock Faber Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (8), Jake Middleton (10)3–1
- P32:08Yakov Trenin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (2), Liam Ohgren (2)2–1
- P218:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (17)1–1
- P112:18Jake Middleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (1), Frederick Gaudreau (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:18Jake Middleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (1), Frederick Gaudreau (11)MIN 1 – 0 COL · MIN 33% → 49% +16MIN 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P218:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (17)MIN 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 62% +24COL 37% → 62%+24 pts
- P32:08Yakov Trenin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (2), Liam Ohgren (2)MIN 2 – 1 COL · MIN 39% → 66% +26MIN 39% → 66%+26 pts
- P33:43Brock Faber Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (8), Jake Middleton (10)MIN 3 – 1 COL · MIN 67% → 87% +20MIN 67% → 87%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 69%
- ML MIN +210 / COL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- COL: Elo 62.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -221
- MIN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.2 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +2 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +90 Elo | COL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216–8 | Road vs home | 14–1012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–23 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–5 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.