Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Logan O'ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:05Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (44), Leon Draisaitl (36)4–3
- P214:49Connor McDavid Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (35), Evan Bouchard (27)3–3
- P26:17Brett Kulak Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P119:18Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (15), Vasily Podkolzin (12)1–3
- P111:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (16)0–3
- P110:04Nathan MacKinnon Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (8), Calvin de Haan (7)0–2
- P15:17Logan O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (5), Mikko Rantanen (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:17Logan O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (5), Mikko Rantanen (37)EDM 0 – 1 COL · COL 53% → 68% +15COL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P110:04Nathan MacKinnon Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (8), Calvin de Haan (7)EDM 0 – 2 COL · COL 68% → 81% +13COL 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P26:17Brett Kulak Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: noneEDM 2 – 3 COL · EDM 15% → 29% +14EDM 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P214:49Connor McDavid Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (35), Evan Bouchard (27)EDM 3 – 3 COL · EDM 27% → 48% +21EDM 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P313:05Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (44), Leon Draisaitl (36)EDM 4 – 3 COL · EDM 49% → 85% +36EDM 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 53%
- ML EDM +105 / COL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- COL: Elo 56.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +43 Elo | COL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%25th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3213–8 | Road vs home | 13–912th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–27 | 17–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 13–22 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.