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Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Altitude Sports, Victory+

Away

Stars

28-16-1

3–6

at

Home

Avalanche

28-18-1

DAL 46%COL 54%

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Ball Arena · ESPN+, Altitude Sports, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored DAL favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • P313:13Cale Makar Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (10), Casey Mittelstadt (20)3–6
  • P311:47Jason Robertson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (25), Wyatt Johnston (25)3–5
  • P311:08Jason Robertson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (24), Ilya Lyubushkin (9)2–5
  • P38:13Artturi Lehkonen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (19), Josh Manson (11)1–5
  • P218:30Jonathan Drouin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (8), Josh Manson (10)1–4
  • P211:56Artturi Lehkonen Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (9)1–3
  • P210:31Cale Makar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (56), Mikko Rantanen (38)1–2
  • P113:07Casey Mittelstadt Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (7)1–1
  • P13:24Matt Duchene Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (23), Jason Robertson (26)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:24Matt Duchene Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (23), Jason Robertson (26)DAL 1 – 0 COL · DAL 46% → 61% +15
  2. P113:07Casey Mittelstadt Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (7)DAL 1 – 1 COL · COL 38% → 54% +16
  3. P210:31Cale Makar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (56), Mikko Rantanen (38)DAL 1 – 2 COL · COL 53% → 72% +19
  4. P211:56Artturi Lehkonen Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (9)DAL 1 – 3 COL · COL 73% → 87% +14
  5. P218:30Jonathan Drouin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (8), Josh Manson (10)DAL 1 – 4 COL · COL 90% → 97% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 54%

Toss-upHit
DAL 46%COL 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
COL 54%
ML DAL +110 / COL -130
Pre-line forecast
COL 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 54%
Ratings vs. market
+0.1 pts
COL: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
COL -119
DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.1 – 3.4 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALCOLWhy
Team rating15601544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−8+4DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +31 EloCOL 54.4%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 53.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 54.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatCOL
10th of 323.2Goals scored3.36th of 32
3rd of 322.5Goals allowed3.120th of 32
4th of 32+0.8Margin+0.210th of 32
3rd of 3253.8%Shot share52.4%7th of 32
3rd of 3291.2%Save percentage89.5%26th of 32
1st of 328–2Last 106–46th of 32
6th of 3212–8Road vs home13–1013th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsAvalanche
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALCOL
Puck line19–2517–29
Last 105–54–6
Favorite17–2213–23
Underdog2–34–6
Overs–unders15–2924–22
Overs–unders, last 103–74–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 6–5 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.