Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Maple LeafsScoring summary
- P32:54Logan Stankoven Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Matt Duchene (24), Jason Robertson (25)4–1
- P31:06Matt Duchene Goal (17) Between Legs, assists: Wyatt Johnston (21), Miro Heiskanen (15)3–1
- P212:35Mavrik Bourque Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Logan Stankoven (17), Thomas Harley (16)2–1
- P18:33Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (12), Matt Duchene (23)1–1
- P14:15Auston Matthews Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (46)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:15Auston Matthews Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (46)DAL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 47% → 62% +15TOR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P18:33Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (12), Matt Duchene (23)DAL 1 – 1 TOR · DAL 37% → 53% +16DAL 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P212:35Mavrik Bourque Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Logan Stankoven (17), Thomas Harley (16)DAL 2 – 1 TOR · DAL 52% → 72% +20DAL 52% → 72%+20 pts
- P31:06Matt Duchene Goal (17) Between Legs, assists: Wyatt Johnston (21), Miro Heiskanen (15)DAL 3 – 1 TOR · DAL 76% → 91% +15DAL 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P32:54Logan Stankoven Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Matt Duchene (24), Jason Robertson (25)DAL 4 – 1 TOR · DAL 92% → 98% +6DAL 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 51.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +7 Elo | DAL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 6th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–24 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–27 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.