Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Matthew HighmorePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (5), Logan Stankoven (16)2–3
- P30:21Matthew Highmore Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Cousins (8), Shane Pinto (5)1–3
- P23:53Tim Stützle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (22), Claude Giroux (19)1–2
- P23:14Josh Norris Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (24), Nick Jensen (14)1–1
- P14:31Jason Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (8), Evgenii Dadonov (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:31Jason Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (8), Evgenii Dadonov (10)DAL 1 – 0 OTT · DAL 58% → 72% +14DAL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P23:14Josh Norris Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (24), Nick Jensen (14)DAL 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 27% → 44% +17OTT 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P23:53Tim Stützle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (22), Claude Giroux (19)DAL 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 44% → 62% +19OTT 44% → 62%+19 pts
- P30:21Matthew Highmore Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Cousins (8), Shane Pinto (5)DAL 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 70% → 88% +18OTT 70% → 88%+18 pts
- P319:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (5), Logan Stankoven (16)DAL 2 – 3 OTT · DAL <1% → <1% +0DAL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML DAL -150 / OTT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- OTT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 2.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +11 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +17 Elo | DAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 4th of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–23 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–26 | 16–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–1 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.