Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:43Joel Armia Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (32)3–1
- P39:15Alex Newhook Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (33)2–1
- P14:37Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (19), Nick Suzuki (31)1–1
- P13:50Jason Robertson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (11), Wyatt Johnston (22)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:50Jason Robertson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (11), Wyatt Johnston (22)MTL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 65% → 77% +13DAL 65% → 77%+13 pts
- P14:37Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (19), Nick Suzuki (31)MTL 1 – 1 DAL · MTL 23% → 35% +13MTL 23% → 35%+13 pts
- P39:15Alex Newhook Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (33)MTL 2 – 1 DAL · MTL 43% → 76% +32MTL 43% → 76%+32 pts
- P319:43Joel Armia Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (32)MTL 3 – 1 DAL · MTL >99% → 100% +0MTL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 65%
- ML MTL +175 / DAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -186
- MTL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +31 | +6 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.78 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +103 Elo | DAL 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 69.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.83rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 53.7%3rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 17th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 16–52nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–17 | 19–24 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19 | 15–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.