Minnesota Wild at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists2
- Marco RossiPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:35Marco Rossi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (15)4–3
- P318:29Marcus Foligno Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (29), Marcus Johansson (13)3–3
- P313:07Matt Boldy Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (12), Frederick Gaudreau (14)2–3
- P30:22Lucas Raymond Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (28), Patrick Kane (20)1–3
- P28:05Vincent Hinostroza Goal (2) Batted, assists: Matt Boldy (29)1–2
- P25:41Dylan Larkin Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (23), Lucas Raymond (39)0–2
- P17:54Alex DeBrincat Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Andrew Copp (13), Vladimir Tarasenko (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:54Alex DeBrincat Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Andrew Copp (13), Vladimir Tarasenko (16)MIN 0 – 1 DET · DET 56% → 70% +15DET 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P28:05Vincent Hinostroza Goal (2) Batted, assists: Matt Boldy (29)MIN 1 – 2 DET · MIN 13% → 27% +14MIN 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P30:22Lucas Raymond Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (28), Patrick Kane (20)MIN 1 – 3 DET · DET 77% → 91% +15DET 77% → 91%+15 pts
- P318:29Marcus Foligno Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (29), Marcus Johansson (13)MIN 3 – 3 DET · MIN 1% → 49% +48MIN 1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT3:35Marco Rossi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (15)MIN 4 – 3 DET · MIN 49% → >99% +50MIN 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML MIN +120 / DET -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- DET: Elo 55.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +5 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 47.7%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3220–10 | Road vs home | 15–1417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–27 | 35–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–30 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.