Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Elmer SoderblomGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists1
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints1
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals2
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Shane WrightPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Patrick Kane Goal Backhand1–0
- P317:04Chandler Stephenson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (8), Eeli Tolvanen (10)4–4
- P310:10Shane Wright Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (28), Vince Dunn (14)4–3
- P33:21Elmer Soderblom Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Joe Veleno (5), Simon Edvinsson (16)4–2
- P212:07Jonatan Berggren Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (12)3–2
- P26:29Shane Wright Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (15), Cale Fleury (1)2–2
- P119:30Moritz Seider Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (20)2–1
- P19:28Matty Beniers Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (22)1–1
- P13:36Lucas Raymond Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (27), Marco Kasper (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:30Moritz Seider Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (20)DET 2 – 1 SEA · DET 49% → 66% +17DET 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P26:29Shane Wright Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (15), Cale Fleury (1)DET 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 32% → 51% +19SEA 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P212:07Jonatan Berggren Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (12)DET 3 – 2 SEA · DET 49% → 70% +20DET 49% → 70%+20 pts
- P33:21Elmer Soderblom Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Joe Veleno (5), Simon Edvinsson (16)DET 4 – 2 SEA · DET 75% → 91% +16DET 75% → 91%+16 pts
- P317:04Chandler Stephenson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (8), Eeli Tolvanen (10)DET 4 – 4 SEA · SEA 5% → 50% +45SEA 5% → 50%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML DET -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +8 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +7 Elo | DET 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 48.2%26th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 12th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 13–1627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–19 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.