Pittsburgh Penguins at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kris LetangAssists1
- Kris LetangPoints1
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:06Matty Beniers Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (20)1–4
- P35:06Eeli Tolvanen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (24), Shane Wright (15)1–3
- P217:46Vince Dunn Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (23), Chandler Stephenson (27)1–2
- P24:34Sidney Crosby Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (19), Kris Letang (12)1–1
- P22:16Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (14), Chandler Stephenson (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:16Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (14), Chandler Stephenson (26)PIT 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 51% → 69% +18SEA 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P24:34Sidney Crosby Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (19), Kris Letang (12)PIT 1 – 1 SEA · PIT 31% → 49% +18PIT 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P217:46Vince Dunn Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (23), Chandler Stephenson (27)PIT 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 51% → 73% +22SEA 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P35:06Eeli Tolvanen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (24), Shane Wright (15)PIT 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 77% → 93% +16SEA 77% → 93%+16 pts
- P313:06Matty Beniers Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (20)PIT 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 98% → >99% +1SEA 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML PIT -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +9 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +55 Elo | SEA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 48.0%26th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 28th of 328–17 | Road vs home | 11–1425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–26 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–21 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.